The second one is a seat-by-seat projection based on the above polling. These are based on a model that examined how regional polling results impacted individual ridings over the last series of elections. It assigns an overall probability of a given party winning every riding, which is displayed below.
A lot of the uncertainty in the riding projections is due to the relative volatility in the regional polling, particularly in Edmonton, as shown below:
11 comments:
Will you be doing seat projections? or commentary on the riding-level? Or various scenarios based on the polls?
Hi!
Yup, I’m just finishing transfering poll data from the old electoral districts to the new ones, then I’ll update here!
I was wondering whats the exactly polling numbers riding by riding in the Northsast Edmonton (ie Manning , Decore and Beverly Clareview )
Thanks
In addition to the projected seat map, can you add a party tabular summary as well?
Hi Anonymous!
Yes, I'm working on a way to consistently format a table summary. I'll be adding it with my next updates!
Great work as always, Michael!
Great work as always, Michael!
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