Alberta Election Tracking

We're more or less halfway through the 29th Alberta Legislature, and fortunately pollsters have continued to be relatively active in keeping track of voter preferences in that time.

I've cobbled together two models for the upcoming election, and hope to add to that over the next two years. The first one is a province-wide poll tracker, where I'll be taking the various opinion polls and estimating the trend in voting preference, as well as estimating the actual voting preference and confidence in that preference. This takes into account the date and length of time between each poll taken, as well as the sample sizes of each poll.

April 12 update: Things seem to have stabilized over the last little bit. The wildly inconsistent polls of the end of 2016 are thankfully a thing of the past, and we're seeing a bit of a tightening up of the confidence ranges for each party. This has only been the first poll since the PC leadership convention, so it will be interesting to see more when they come out.

The second model I've put together is a seat projection. This takes the poll numbers, and estimates support in each riding based on patterns from previous elections. When possible, polls that breakdown support by regions are used as they've proven to be more accurate. The darker coloured bars indicate the 50% likely range of seats, and the lighter coloured bars indicate the 95% range of seats.

Based on the models, the most likely election outcome as of April 12 2017 is a Wildrose Majority.

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