Alberta Election Tracking

We're more or less halfway through the 29th Alberta Legislature, and fortunately pollsters have continued to be relatively active in keeping track of voter preferences in that time.

I've cobbled together two models for the upcoming election, and hope to add to that over the next two years. The first one is a province-wide poll tracker, where I'll be taking the various opinion polls and estimating the trend in voting preference, as well as estimating the actual voting preference and confidence in that preference. This takes into account the date and length of time between each poll taken, as well as the sample sizes of each poll.



The second one is a seat-by-seat projection based on the above polling. These are based on a model that examined how regional polling results impacted individual ridings over the last series of elections. It assigns an overall probability of a given party winning every riding, which is displayed below.





5 comments:

JVB said...

Will you be doing seat projections? or commentary on the riding-level? Or various scenarios based on the polls?

Michael Ross said...

Hi!

Yup, I’m just finishing transfering poll data from the old electoral districts to the new ones, then I’ll update here!

Anonymous said...

I was wondering whats the exactly polling numbers riding by riding in the Northsast Edmonton (ie Manning , Decore and Beverly Clareview )

Thanks

Anonymous said...

In addition to the projected seat map, can you add a party tabular summary as well?

Michael Ross said...

Hi Anonymous!

Yes, I'm working on a way to consistently format a table summary. I'll be adding it with my next updates!