To wrap up my series on curling tournaments, here are the odds for countries to make at least a tiebreaker or win the whole tournament of the 2015 World Men's Curling Championships:
World Women's Curling Championships
Here are the odds of a given country making the tiebreaker round, and winning the whole tournament, respectively:
Tim Hortons Brier Odds 2015
Similarly to how I handled the Scotties this year, I'll be providing live updates of curling odds as the tournament progresses!
Last Updated: March 5, 21:45 (Draw 16)
This is very cool! If BC beats Saskatchewan, then BC and Quebec will end up in tiebreakers with Saskatchewan later tonight. If BC beats Saskatchewan and Alberta beats New Brunswick, then Alberta also joins the tiebreaker party.
Current odds for these games are:
- BC has a 48.9% chance of beating Saskatchewan
- Alberta has a 65.3% chance of beating New Brunswick (combined 31.9% chance of getting into tiebreakers).
Let's see how this pans out!
Scotties Tournament of Hearts 2015
The Scotties Tournament of Hearts is on! I've used a very similar Monte Carlo analysis as my CFL predictions from last season to develop a model of the Scotties tournament for the year, which I hope to update after each draw. The probabilities are the determined based on who each team has already played, the points scored for and against in previous games, and who remains to be played in the round robin.
Final results from the model after Round-Robin play:
Alberta, Manitoba, Canada, and Saskatchewan are all in the playoffs, which the model was suggesting was most likely back at around Draw 9 (with a brief break during the northern Ontario surge).
Manitoba is the strong favorite heading into the playoffs. Both Manitoba and Alberta have double the chance of Saskatchewan and Canada to start, due to the Page Playoff system, but based on the slide Alberta's been on recently and the performance in past games, the advantage is definitely going to Manitoba.
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