Ontario Election Tracking

Alberta's elections are pretty cool, but before they happen Ontario is going to have their own!

Ontario's elections take place in June, and I'll be tracking the polls here. I'm using this to practice working with my model in anticipation of better coverage for the Alberta election, and am using a hybrid between proportional and uniform swing models that I've cobbled together.

Last updated: June 6, 2018

First of all, the big picture since the last election:

 Followed by a zoomed-in and enhanced view of the race since the beginning of the campaign:

I'm also working on a seat projection. Again, showing since the beginning of the year:

For this graph, the dark zones represent 50% odds of occurrence, and the lighter zones represent 90% odds. Based on this model, I estimate that if an election were today, the PCs have a 94.2% chance of winning, most likely (81.5%) with a minority.

I'm certainly not the only person to be doing this, and I recommend comparing and contrasting with some of these other fun psephologists:

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