New Brunswick Election Tracking

Based on the relative success of my Ontario poll tracking, I'm going to try my hand at New Brunswick's upcoming election. Follow along, it'll be fun!

Ontario's elections take place in September, and I'll be tracking the polls here. I'm using this to practice working with my model in anticipation of better coverage for the Alberta election, and am using a hybrid between proportional and uniform swing models that I've cobbled together.

Last updated: September 23, 2018

First of all, the big picture since the last election:

I'm also working on a seat projection:

For this graph, the dark zones represent 50% odds of occurrence, and the lighter zones represent 90% odds. Based on this model, I estimate that if an election were today, the Liberals have a 91.8% chance of winning, most likely (81.1%) with a majority.

I'm certainly not the only person to be doing this, and I recommend comparing and contrasting with some of these other fun psephologists:

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