Thursday, March 7, 2013

SU Model Results

This is a post that is going to have some numbers. Because of all the numbers, I'm going to have a disclaimer, and like all good disclaimers it will start in the form of a story.

Once upon a time, a washed-up old SU hack came up with an idea. He wanted to see if maybe there was a correlation between numerical inputs and voting results in elections.

So he made a machine. The machine ate numbers, and spat out numbers. 

And he saw all that he had made, and it was very good.

Well, maybe not. Using three years of election data to calibrate the formula is good for validating it. Having a model that takes old data and correctly predicts what happens in past elections is lovely, and the fact that it is as accurate as it is looks really good on paper. However, it is likely prone to over-fitting - small things that make the model accurate in older years may have been coincidences, or are not important in future years.

So with all that, let me say that I have no reason to believe these numbers are going to be particularly accurate. This is truly just me taking a formula that worked for previous elections, and using similar inputs to try to come up with numbers.

Note: One of the inputs is the budget summaries, available here.

Petros:  39.6% First-round votes
Saadiq: 35.1% First-round votes

Probability of Petros Kusmu winning: 70.2%

VP Student Life
Kevin:  35.5%
William: 47.9%

Probability of William Lau winning: 97.8%

Good luck...

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