Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Vote Turnout Projection [Update Thu 08:00]

Current turnout projection: 20.0%

Here are two new graphs, updated as of this morning. If you compare the first one with the previous set of graphs, you can see that it generally followed the predicted trend in shape, but was just slightly lower than anticipated.




Original Post:

After last year's election, I mentioned that when you look at the trends in voting behaviour between various elections, they're almost always the same. In fact, if you overlaid them (and corrected for length of election and total number of voters), they were very nearly identical.

What's really cool about this is that if you know the turnout at any given time, you can try to project the total voter turnout by the end of the election (assuming that the pattern holds this year).

So I did that.

Check it out. I have two graphs. The first one shows the total turnout so far (solid line) and the project turnout based on the curve from previous elections (dashed line).

And the second one compares turnout to projected turnout.
What's really cool about the second one is that the projected value hasn't deviated by more than a couple percent hour-to-hour for the last couple of hours. This suggests that the trend from the last couple of years has been followed pretty closely for a while now, although the beginning of the day was slower than anticipated.


Stay tuned for updates!

2 comments:

Amanda Bella said...

I Want To Appreciate Dr.OYAGU for hs great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr.OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr.OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have There Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr.OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguspellcaster@gmail.com

Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you .....

Richard Debra said...

i have been suffering from a deadly disease (Hsv) for the past 3 years now, I had spent a lIot of money going from one places to another, from churches to churches, hospitals have been my home every day residence. Constant checks up have been my hobby not until this faithful day, I was searching through the internet, I saw a testimony on how Dr Onokun helped someone in curing his (Hsv) herpes disease, quickly I copied his email which is Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com just to give him a test I spoke to him, he asked me to do some certain things which I did, he told me that he is going to provide the herbal cure to me, which he did, then he asked me to go for medical checkup after some days after using the herbal cure, behold I was free from the deadly disease, he only asked me to post the testimony through the whole world, faithfully am doing it now, please brothers and sisters, he is great, I owe him in return. if you are having a similar problem just email him on : Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com