Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Alberta Electoral Districts

A few months ago, the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission released its report with recommendations on how to redistrict the province for the 2019 election. As I discussed before, this is an important process that occurs every eight to ten years, and is necessary for keeping the provincial electoral boundaries up to date with current population distributions.

As a quick aside, I'd like to thank everyone who, after reading my post on redistributing using the shortest splitline algorithm, actually wrote in to the commission to tell them to do that. Thanks guys!

Redistricting is always a hot topic, as it can lead to accusations of tampering or gerrymandering by those in power. In Alberta the process is ostensibly done by an arms-length body, and as such when the results were unveiled in October the complaints were pretty tame from the parties not in power. The major effect of the redistricting was to merge rural ridings in such a way that three more urban ridings were created.

In 2015, the poll by poll results for Alberta looked like this:



Here, each poll is shaded a darker colour if the party won by 50% of the vote or more. It's pretty fun to zoom around in it!

These polls were fitted to the 2015 riding boundaries, and if we break them out then add the votes back together according to the new 2019 boundaries, we can get a sense of what the outcome for future elections might look like. The process isn't perfect, as not all polls fit precisely into each new riding, but ultimately this is how the 2015 election is likely to have looked under the 2019 redistricting:




This map is coloured the same way as the poll map above.

The impact this would have had on each party is:

  • The total seats won by the NDP wouldn't have changed at 54
  • The total seats won by the Wildrose would have decreased from 21 to 20
  • The total seats won by the PCs would have increased from 10* to 12
  • The Alberta Party would have stayed at 1 seat
  • The Liberals wouldn't have won any
The next election is a little over a year away, and these will be the ridings to be determined in that election. Stay tuned as I work to better develop my seat projection model and poll tracker over the next year!

4 comments:

Unknown said...

Awesome job! It's helpful to know how that would have affected the existing setup, gives a better feel for the effect of the changes.

Teresa Halminton said...

Thank you! Hope to see more posts from you.
imgrum

scr888 download said...


Appreciation to my father who shared with me regarding this web site, this web site is actually awesome.

Sharon Wayne said...

I want to thank Dr Emu a very powerful spell caster who help me to bring my husband back to me, few month ago i have a serious problem with my husband, to the extend that he left the house, and he started dating another woman and he stayed with the woman, i tried all i can to bring him back, but all my effort was useless until the day my friend came to my house and i told her every thing that had happened between me and my husband, then she told me of a powerful spell caster who help her when she was in the same problem I then contact Dr Emu and told him every thing and he told me not to worry my self again that my husband will come back to me after he has cast a spell on him, i thought it was a joke, after he had finish casting the spell, he told me that he had just finish casting the spell, to my greatest surprise within 48 hours, my husband really came back begging me to forgive him, if you need his help you can contact him with via email: Emutemple@gmail.com or add him up on his whatsapp +2347012841542 is willing to help any body that need his help.
Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/