Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Vote Turnout Projection [Update Thu 08:00]

Current turnout projection: 20.0%

Here are two new graphs, updated as of this morning. If you compare the first one with the previous set of graphs, you can see that it generally followed the predicted trend in shape, but was just slightly lower than anticipated.




Original Post:

After last year's election, I mentioned that when you look at the trends in voting behaviour between various elections, they're almost always the same. In fact, if you overlaid them (and corrected for length of election and total number of voters), they were very nearly identical.

What's really cool about this is that if you know the turnout at any given time, you can try to project the total voter turnout by the end of the election (assuming that the pattern holds this year).

So I did that.

Check it out. I have two graphs. The first one shows the total turnout so far (solid line) and the project turnout based on the curve from previous elections (dashed line).

And the second one compares turnout to projected turnout.
What's really cool about the second one is that the projected value hasn't deviated by more than a couple percent hour-to-hour for the last couple of hours. This suggests that the trend from the last couple of years has been followed pretty closely for a while now, although the beginning of the day was slower than anticipated.


Stay tuned for updates!

4 comments:

Amanda Bella said...

I Want To Appreciate Dr.OYAGU for hs great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year,And Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr.OYAGU Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr.OYAGU I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me,I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health.He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative.My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have There Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OYAGU To Help You Too,And Help Me To Thank Dr.OYAGU For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OYAGU Herbal Medicine,His Contact Email:oyaguspellcaster@gmail.com

Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you .....

Richard Debra said...

i have been suffering from a deadly disease (Hsv) for the past 3 years now, I had spent a lIot of money going from one places to another, from churches to churches, hospitals have been my home every day residence. Constant checks up have been my hobby not until this faithful day, I was searching through the internet, I saw a testimony on how Dr Onokun helped someone in curing his (Hsv) herpes disease, quickly I copied his email which is Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com just to give him a test I spoke to him, he asked me to do some certain things which I did, he told me that he is going to provide the herbal cure to me, which he did, then he asked me to go for medical checkup after some days after using the herbal cure, behold I was free from the deadly disease, he only asked me to post the testimony through the whole world, faithfully am doing it now, please brothers and sisters, he is great, I owe him in return. if you are having a similar problem just email him on : Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com

nelson said...

Do You Need A Powerful Africa Native Doctor? I Mean A Spiritual Herbalist
With Great Spirit Connected To Ancestors. Call or WhatsApp +2349058774809 Dr Obodubu Monday Is A High Voodoo Priest Master. He is a Spell Caster, Native
Doctor, Spiritual Herbalist, Powerful Sickle cell Healer, Spiritual
Astrologer, Psychic Reader, Multi Guru, Witch Doctor, Priest Of Africa
Money Ritual.
Have You Been To Native Doctor to Native Doctor Without Any Solution To
Your Problems Or Rather Add To it? Have You Been To Place To Place In View
Of A Powerful Native Doctor That Can Solve All Your Predicament, You Must
Understand That There Is A Native Doctor That Supersede All Native Doctor
Among All Native Doctor, If You Are In Search Of A Powerful Native Doctor
With Great Spiritual Powers, Then You Must Be In Search Of A Native Doctor
That Derives Power From The Marine World. That Is The Spirituality Of The
Greatest Africa Native Doctor Obodubu.
Dr Obodubu Is Recognized All Over The World Of Marine Kingdom, As One
Of The Top Fortunate And Most Powerful Native Doctor Of Charms Casts From
The Beginning Of His Ancestors ship Until Now Dr who lives Strong
Among All Other Native Doctors, There Have Never Been Any Form Of
Impossibility Beyond The Control Of Dr Obodubu. It Doesn't Matter The
Distance Of The Person With The Problems Or Situation, All You Have To Do
Is Believe
In The Native Obodubu charms Casts That Works, He Always
Warns Never To Get His Charms Casts If You Do Not Believe Or Unable To
Follow His Instruction.
It Is The Assignment Of The Native Doctor Obodubu To Offer
Services To Those In Need Of Spiritual Assistance Not Minding The Gravity
Of Your Situations Or Distance As Long As Water, Sea, Ocean, Lake, River
Sand etc. Are Near You, Then Your Problems Of Life Would Be Controlled
Under Your Foot.
If You Need Any Spiritual Help On Any of These:
Get Your Lover Back
Fruit Of The Womb
Fibroid
Business Boom
Financial Breakthrough
Get Rich Without Ritual WhatsApp +2349058774809
Do As I Say
Bad Dream
Promise And Fail
Epilepsy
Spiritual Attack
Land/Court Case
Mental Disorder
Political Appointment
Visa Approval
Cancer
Examination Success
Spend And Get Back
Good Luck
Natural Health
Hypertension
Diabesity (Diabetic+Obesity
Stroke
Sickle Cell
Impotency
Win Court Case
Promotion At Work
Commanding Tone
Protection Ring
Marriage Success
Love Ring
Favour Ring
Recover Lost Glory
Spiritual Power For Men Of God
Travel Success Ring
Job Success
Lotto/Pool Win And Many More.
Make Haste To Call or WhatsApp Dr Obodubu Monday +2349058774809. Or Mail Him to
babadoctorobodubuspiritualhome@gmail.com For Spiritual Problem Today And
You Will Surely
Get Solution To All Your Predicament.
Email: babadoctorobodubuspiritualhome@gmail.com

Richardson Damien said...

Hello it's Damien! Four years ago I found out I was diagnosed with  HPV. I was heartbroken,  However a couple months ago I was recommended to a Dr. who helped me to get rid of the virus with natural herbal treatment. Now I fully believed in natural treatment thanks to Dr Olori. His contact information:    droloriherbalcenter@gmail.com, whatsapp  +2348110492548.