Monday, April 22, 2019

Alberta 2019 Election Post-mortem

Well that was fun!

How did I do?

For more than a year now I've been tracking Alberta election polls with the hope of developing a reasonably accurate prediction model. Overall, I'm happy to report that the party I predicted in the lead won in 80 out of 87 races, and my riding qualifiers broke out as follow:

  • "Solid" lead: 65/65 (100%)
  • "Likely" lead: 12/15 (80%)
  • "Lean" lead: 2/5 (40%)
  • "Toss-up" edge: 1/2 (50%)
I think this is a decent proof of concept, small "lean" sample size notwithstanding, and I want to talk a bit about what went right and what went wrong, and how I can improve if I want to keep doing this sort of thing.

First of all, the polls leading up to election day didn't turn out to be too accurate. Take a look at the province and regional splits:







Edmonton was remarkably accurate, Calgary was close, but the rest of the province and the top line results were off significantly. This is possibly a cause for concern, as it could suggest that my model was taking inaccurate data as inputs but then claiming credit for an accurate output, which it wasn't designed to do.

The NDP ended up under-performing relative to their polling numbers, and likely the only reason this didn't mess up too many election prediction models is because they under performed mostly in areas like rural Alberta, where they were predicted to lose anyway. If the polls had been that wrong about the NDP in Edmonton, say, the predictions could have been far worse.

Similarly, my model and others like me likely wouldn't have fared too well if the NDP had overperformed their polling rather than underperformed. The same amount of polling error as actually occurred, applied the other direction, could have had the NDP win the popular vote across the province.

My takeaway from this is that I need to adjust my topline polling tracker. Right now it runs under the implicit assumption that errors in individual polls will cancel each other out. This seemed reasonable given that polls are produced by different companies with different methods. That led to my full Alberta tracker having a low confidence interval for the NDP in particular, though, as several polls in a row provided the same result. If I instead make the assumption that at least part of the polling error is correlated between polls, perhaps due to something beyond their control, then the final result from election night would have still been a surprise, but far less of one. Certainly something I'll take into account next time.

Other Metrics


Overall on a riding-by-riding level, I had an error of 6.4% vote share. That's not superb, but also not far from what my testing beforehand suggested, and was factored into my uncertainty. Comparing my final projection to actual results on election night doesn't look too bad:


If we ignore the Alberta Party and the Liberals, this leads to an overall R-squared value of 0.79, which I consider respectable. It's handy to ignore the low parties because they don't have much of a spread, and will skew the coefficient of determination calculation.

Very fortunately for me, if I input the final actual regional results as though they were a poll result, my model does improve. This is a good hint that my model is behaving decently, especially so since this hasn't been the case with all other forecasters.


With the correct Calgary, Edmonton, and Rural results input as large polls, my model improved to 83/87 seats correctly predicted and an R-squared for party support per seat of 0.91. Very encouraging - too bad the polls weren't more correct!

Finally, I also provided an expected odds of winning each seat for each party. It's one thing to count a prediction as a success if you give it 100% odds of winning and it comes true, but how does one properly score oneself in the case of Calgary-Mountain View, where I gave the Liberals (10.8%), UCP (16.2%) and NDP (73%) different odds of winning, and only one (NDP) did?

In this case I've scored each riding using a Brier score. A score of 0 means a perfect prediction (100% to the winner and 0% predicted for all losers), a score of 1.0 means a perfectly wrong prediction (100% to one of the losers), and because of the math, a score of 0.19 for a complete four-way coin toss (I only predicted the four parties represented in the debate).

Overall, I scored a 0.027, which is considerably better than just guessing. It's hard to get an intuitive sense of what that score really means, but it's mathematically the same as assigning an 83.5% chance of something happening and having it come true. Not a bad prediction, but there's room to be sharpened.

How did I stack up?

So like I said, there were a lot of us predicting the election this time around. I've tried to find as many as I can, and I apologize profoundly if I've missed anyone. I've only included forecasts that had either a vote breakdown per seat or anticipated odds of winning each seat for comparison purposes.

I've reported on three main measures (seat accuracy, R-squared per seat, and prediction Brier score), and I'll present as many of those for each forecaster as I was able to determine. Different forecasters win at different categories, so it's not necessarily a clear picture as to which one of us is the "best", so I'll mostly leave room here for interpretation:



I'm not claiming to be the second best, but it's important to note that being best in one measure doesn't necessarily mean best overall. There are also harder-to-evaluate measures in play here - for instance VisualizedPolitics and TooClosetoCall allow you to input poll values to see reactions for yourself, and both improved when given more accurate data (VisualizedPolitics also got to 83 seats accurately predicted, though still with a low R-squared value).

338Canada probably rightly can claim to have been the strongest this time around, but I given the polling errors we were faced with I think it'll take several more elections to determine if anyone is really getting a significant edge consistently. This isn't the first time we've compared ourselves to each other, and I think it's an important exercise in evaluating our own models and whether there's a need for more.

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kingsley matthew said...

HOW ILLUMINATI BROTHERHOOD MAKE ME RICH AND FAMOUS. I am a member of the illuminati brotherhood, i want to give thanks to the Lord Lucifer, for what he has done for me, he changed my life, he bring joy and happiness to my life, i am living a good life today is because of the illuminati brotherhood, i have being try all my life to join the illuminati brotherhood, i was scammed some many times but i still did not give up, because when you give up in life, life will also give up on you, if you have been scammed so many times, my advise for you is not to give up, because the illuminati brotherhood is real, i joined the real illuminati paying just 300usd, to join the illuminati, i want you all to know today, , you don't pay money to join, my advice for you all is to make up your mind and join the illuminati brotherhood, when my initiation process was completed the benefits amount which was given to me is $1,000,000 to start a new life, this is the reason why i can not stop hailing the illuminati brotherhood, Are you a musician or a politician or a business person and you want to become rich in what you do if you are in any kind of problems or you in support in life, my advice to you is to join the illuminati brotherhood so that all your problems can be solve in life, to join the illuminati brotherhood you can contact Nathaniel Nelly on whatsapp, +1 (201) 293-7097 or Email him on illuminatinationwide2@gmail.com

kingsley matthew said...

HOW I FINALLY JOINED THE ILLUMINATI BROTHERHOOD AFTER A LOT OF SCAMS HELLO everyone my name is Danty i am from the USA i'm giving a testimony on how I joined the illuminati brotherhood, I was trying to join this organization for so many years now, I was scammed by some fake agent I was so down i could not feed my self or even take care of my bills and my family no more and I tried to make money by diffrent ways which all went in vain, I was afraid to contact any illuminati agent because i have scammed alot and they've eaten my hard earned money, one day I came across a post of someone giving a testimony thanking a man called NATHANIEL NELLY for helping him to join the illuminati brotherhood, then I looked at the man's email and the phone number that was written below , I was really afraid cause i wouldnt want to loose again to contact him because i was scammed a lot of times by scammers who ate my 500,000 and went away with the money then I was so confused so I made up my mind to contact the person that was given the testimony and i called him and I communicated with him on phone calls before he started telling me his own story about when he wanted to join he told me everything to do, then I made up my mind and called the agent called Mr NATHANIEL and he told me everything which i need to do which i did all and I was initiated, surprisingly I was given my benefits of being a new member of the great illuminati brotherhood I was so happy that a turn came into my life all thanks to him .. For more info contact the official agent on WhatsApp on +1 (201) 293-7097 OR email: illuminatinationwide2@gmail.com

danny matthew said...

My testimony on how I became an illuminati member. My names are martin
louis and am 39 years old, am from USA Bahamas I want to notify the
people who want to join the great illuminati, on how I was helped by
the Great Illuminate World secret society in regaining back my
business
position after been sacked for about 5years and six months. I have been
in pains and troubles ever since I , was sacked from the company where
I work, called 'USA Deposit Insurance corporation' as an agency
executive. I have been hopeless, financially down through out those
years. But one day, as I was browsing through the Internet, I came
across the post of the Great Illuminate world society saying you can be
famous, rich and successful in life by been a member of the great
Illuminati member, immediately I contacted and I explained everything
to them and they recommended me and helped and I pay for the Initiation
Fee which will be used to initiate me, and I was initiated to the great
illuminati world secret society after and also they gave me all the
guidelines and told me their place worship. With the help of the Great
illuminati world society I was able to go to temple and there I was
initiated fully as a complete Illuminati member. Surprisingly 48 hours
after i was initiated, I receive a call from the company that I have
been accepted back again as the agency executive of the company at
first I was shocked and surprised when the brotherhood offered me
500, 000.00 USD a car and house with other things that has changed my
life for good regain myself, contact Mr. nathaniel nelly ON WHATSAPP
+1 (224) 334-5371 or email: lluminatinationwide2@gmail.com

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